Tianshan Stock (000877) Quarterly Comment: Continued Volume and Price Rise, Dual-zone Logic Continues
Event: The company released the 杭州桑拿网 third quarter report of 2019 and achieved 72 revenue.
3.8 billion, an annual increase of 28.
57%, net profit attributable to mothers11.
8.1 billion, an annual increase of 54.
29%, asset and debt restructuring at the end of the period40.
Among them, the third quarter achieved revenue of 32.
8.2 billion, an annual increase of 23.
45%, net profit attributable to mother 5.
1.1 billion, an increase of 11 in ten years.
61%, after deducting non-return to mother 5.
0.5 billion, an increase of 51 in ten years.
95%, single quarter gross profit margin of 30.
38%, down 5 from the previous month.
Actual announcement of net profit attributable to mother 5.
100 million is slightly higher than the forecast value of 4.
Among them, the increase in the fair value of Western Construction (equity financial assets) increased to net profit of 23.35 million yuan.
Continuing volume and price increases, Xinjiang’s overall industry demand was slightly lower than expected, with a single quarter gross margin of 30.
38%, down 5 from the previous month.
Six expectations are expected to be related to changes in original costs and freight rates.
(1) In terms of sales volume, according to the Statistics Bureau, Xinjiang ‘s gradual cement output from January to September 2019 was 3028.
77 for the first time, growing by 7 per year.
38%, a gradual decrease of 20.
Among them, the average monthly growth rate in August and September this year was less than 1%, while the decline in the same period last year was more than 10 points in a row. At the same time, we observed that the monthly growth rate in 3 and 5 months expanded to reach more than 20%.Within 10%, and further, the monthly change in sales volume has been affected by the base number. Based on this, from October to December this year, the growth rate gradually increased from August to September. However, from the perspective of amplitude, the decline was more and less. After Xinjiang ‘s demand was rectified last year,Recovery speed is still limited, but it also leaves room for construction needs in the coming year.
(2) In terms of price, according to China Cement Network statistics, Xinjiang’s average price in the third quarter was 451.
96 yuan / ton, the single ton ton is up to about 62 yuan, up 6 yuan from the previous month.
After Xinjiang gradually enters winter in October-November, the price is expected to drop slightly, and it is hoped that it will stop rising after the official peak shift is opened.
(3) The company’s special difference lies in the profit contribution of the Jiangsu production line. According to Zhuochuang statistics, the company has one clinker production line with a daily output of 5,000 tons in Nanjing and Changzhou, and one line with a production line of 2500 and 5,000 tons per day in Wuxi.The annual production capacity of clinker is about 542.
5 minimum value, corresponding to about 700 digits of cement production capacity +.
According to statistics from China Cement Network, the average price of high-standard cement in Jiangsu in the third quarter was 451 including tax.
94 yuan / ton, the average price per ton increased significantly by about 9 yuan. Under the influence of the off-season, it fell by 21 yuan / ton from the second quarter, which is different from last year’s off-season performance. The third quarter of 2018 increased by 14 yuan / ton.
Considering that the company’s internal production capacity is relatively small, the price strategy is biased to follow the market.
Jiangsu’s cement output from January to September increased year by year11.
76%, single quarter quarterly growth of 14.
In addition, the report also needs to pay attention to the following aspects: (1) The asset structure has further improved, and the asset-liability ratio at the end of the period has decreased by 40.
25%, a decrease of 3 from the previous value.
15 singles, only down to present value since mid-1999 since listing.
Finance costs fall by 31 each year.
02%, down 28 in a single quarter.
76%, single quarter financial expense ratio 1.
34%, a drop of nearly one decade a year.
During the reporting period, the company repaid bank borrowings, reducing interest-bearing debt, and short-term borrowings declined earlier53.
02%, a decrease of 59 per year.
5%, non-current debt due within one year fell earlier 42.
As the company increased the infrastructure debt investment plan and the conversion of capital fiscal funds into entrusted loans, the company’s long-term debt increased by 183 over the initial period.
95%, an annual increase of 71.
86%. As of the end of the period, China Construction Materials’ entrusted loan balance to the company was RMB 535.13 million. The conversion of capital financial funds into entrusted loans resulted in a decrease in long-term payables by 98 compared with the beginning of the year.
(3) Sales expense ratio and management expense ratio decreased by 0 year-on-year.
14. 1 average (the management fee for the same period last year includes R & D).
(4) There was compensation for demolition in the same period last year, and the asset disposal income decreased by 96 year-on-year.
Pay attention to the relocation compensation agreement. The remaining 3 batches will be paid in installments. The most recent payment is about 1 at the end of this year.
(5) Received “three supply and one industry” subsidy, non-operating income increased by 55 each year.
We believe that Xinjiang ‘s fixed asset investment growth has “turned from negative to positive” to “stable to positive”, gradually releasing cement demand, and strive to complete 526 in fixed assets investment in transportation in 2019.
33 trillion, 98% completed from January to September, with a higher degree of redemption.
Termination of special bond issuance in the first half of the year 332.
6.6 billion, close to the highest level of last year (360.
Xinjiang has been an important western town since ancient times, and the “Belt and Road” is an important starting point. It has certain advantages in terms of project prospects and financial support.
Taking into account the volume and price performance in the third quarter and possible demolition compensation, we will return the net profit of the mother to 2019-20 from 15.
19 ppm is adjusted to 16.
9.8 billion, with EPS of 1.
71 yuan, corresponding to PE 6.
Risk warning: Infrastructure projects landed less than expected; the price changes in the Jiangsu region in the fourth quarter were less than expected.