Yifan Pharmaceutical (002019): Self-produced preparations achieve rapid growth. Calcium pantothenate boom gradually picks up
Event: The company announced its 2019 Interim Report: 25 operating income.
180,000 yuan (+8.
27%), net profit attributable to mother4.
8.5 billion (-10.
04%), net of non-attributed net profit4.
3.2 billion (-16.
66%), EPS 0.
40 yuan, the performance is in line with expectations.
Opinion: The performance of the second quarter has improved significantly from the previous quarter, and the prosperity of the drug substance has gone out of low.
The company’s Q2 single-quarter revenue was 13.
8.2 billion (+28.
83%), net profit 3.
3.8 billion (+57.
75%), Q1 QoQ, the growth rate changed from negative to positive.
Among them, the calcium pantothenate plate H1 achieved income 5.
US $ 8.8 billion, -29% previously, estimated net profit2.
930,000 yuan, at least -31%.
The price of Q1 calcium pantothenate decreased from the high price base in the same period of 18 years, but Q2 was affected by environmental and security incidents and prices rebounded. The average price of Q1 was 181 yuan / kg, the average price of Q2 was 343 yuan / kg, and the average price of H1 was 270 yuan / kg.The average price of 18H1 is 182 yuan / kg.
19H1 calcium pantothenate is affected by factors such as African swine fever and bird flu, and its sales volume has decreased compared to 18H1.
However, the overall raw material drug sector has come out of a low point. It is expected that Q3 will maintain a high degree of prosperity, and it is expected to achieve growth under a low base in the same period last year.
The “531” key varieties were concentrated, and the preparation sector achieved rapid growth.
The 19H1 company focused on strengthening the cultivation of “531” core products, and the 19H1 preparations segment achieved revenue17.
840,000 yuan, a sharp increase of 32 before.
Of which the agent income is 8.
5.8 billion, an annual increase of 33%, income from self-made preparations9.
$ 2.5 billion, an increase of 32% per year.
Nearly half of “531”, such as self-products, completed bidding, clinical path and expert consensus, dehumidification and antipruritic ointment, pediatric Qingqiao granules, Fuyinkang lotion, Piminxiao capsules, ginkgo biloba pills, compound Yinhua Jiedu granulesThe core products achieved multiple growth, and the trend of concentrated volume began to show.
The price of calcium pantothenate continued to rise in the second half of the year, and the self-produced preparations entered the harvest period, and the performance will be significantly improved.
As of now, the terminal price of total acid calcium is 355 yuan / kg, and the Q3 API is expected to maintain a high level of prosperity.
The 16 key products of the “531” strategy began to focus on increasing the number of products and promoted the sales in the grassroots market. The compound Huangdai tablets were exported to Chile and other countries. They were selected into the European leukemia expert consensus and the WHO base medicine catalog. The preparation sector is expected to achieve a “qualitative leap”.
19H1 Jiannenglong completed the F-627 stock solution process verification production. It is expected that the BLA on-site inspection will be completed in the second half of the year. The preparation of the preparation plant will be completed by 2020. At the same time, the Sino-US dual newspaper will gradually unveil the blind spot. The innovative drug platform Jiannenglong R & D pipeline begins.Landing.
Profit forecast and estimation: The company added 23.9 million 杭州夜生活网 shares due to the equity incentive plan and adjusted its EPS in 19-21 to 0.
26 yuan (originally 0.
05/1.28 yuan), previously + 51% / 14% / 22%, corresponding to the 19-21 PE of 13/12/10, the current estimate is low, there is a performance recovery catalyst in the second half of the year, medium and long-term optimistic about the strategy of preparations and innovative biomedicinesOutlook, maintain “Buy” rating.
Risk warning: the price of calcium pantothenate drops, and innovative drugs fail to meet expectations.