Livzon Group (000513): Achievements in line with expectations The profitability of APIs has improved significantly
Event: The company released the 19-year semi-annual report. The revenue, net profit attributable to mothers and net profit attributable to non-mothers were 49.
3.9 billion yuan, 7.
3.8 billion and 6.
US $ 5.8 billion, respectively, + 8%, + 17%, and + 15% for one year, in line with our mid-term forecast of 15% deduction for non-profit growth.
The comments are as follows. The profits of 19Q2 have maintained rapid growth, and the revenue growth of 19 H2 APIs is expected to improve.
In 19Q2, 杭州桑拿 the company’s net profit attributable to mothers and net profit attributable to non-mothers increased by 6%, + 21% and + 15%, respectively.
We estimate that due to the sales of individual drug substance varieties, the company’s drug substance revenue will increase by about -8% in the time of 19Q2, which will affect the overall revenue growth rate, but we expect 19H2 to improve significantly.
At the same time, the profitability of the company’s APIs has greatly improved, and Q2’s profit growth has not been affected by API revenues, maintaining a high growth rate.
19H1 gastrointestinal and gonadotropin preparations performed excellently.
19H1 company’s digestive tract preparations revenue 9.
45 billion, + 51% a year, we estimate that ilaprazole enteric-coated tablets are about + 63%, which is the core driving variety; ilaprazole powder injections earn about 50 million.
We are optimistic that ilaprazole sodium powder injection will enter the national medical insurance directory through negotiations, driving the company’s performance to a higher level.
Dele, Leibe and Lizhu Sanlian have maintained a growth rate of about 30%, which fully demonstrates: 1. The company’s digestive products are excellent and the market is highly recognized; 2. Multiple products in the same department form brands and channelsSynergy.
19H1 gonadotropin income 8.
9.4 billion, previously + 19%, of which leuprorelin microspheres maintained a rapid growth of 27%; follicle stimulating hormone returned to double-digit growth of 11%.
The profitability of APIs improved significantly.
19H1 Revenue from APIs and Intermediates Business12.
1.9 billion a year.
64%, but gross margin is 30.
58%, an increase of 7 per year.
18 outstanding, bringing a significant increase in profitability.
We estimate that the initial improvement in the company’s gross profit margin is an improvement in technology.
The decline in Shenqi Fuzheng and rat nerve income narrowed.
19H1 Shenqi and rat nerve income were about -17% and -1%, respectively. Earlier 18A income declines were significantly narrowed.
In 19H1, the ratio of these two products to the revenue of preparations was 13.
85%, 16 of the earlier 18A.
39% continued to decline, and the impact of the two products on the company’s performance was getting smaller and smaller.
The growth rate of the company’s preparation income (western medicine + traditional Chinese medicine) also returned from 0% at 18A to 11% at 19H1.
R & D budgets have grown steadily and steadily, and microsphere and monoclonal antibody projects have continued to advance.
19H1 company research and development funding3.
$ 4.4 billion, + 5% per year; of which R & D costs are 2.
8.8 billion yuan a year + 18%.
The triptorelin microspheres in January / time have completed the phase I clinical pre-experiment, separated the related work of the phase I formal clinical trial, and the phase III scheme discussion work.
The IL-6R recombinant antibody source injection is undergoing phase I clinical trials; HER2 and PD-1 humanized monoclonal antibodies are ready for Ib trials.
Upgrade earnings forecast and maintain “Strongly Recommend-A” rating.
As the company ‘s drug substance business profitability has improved significantly and its revenue in 19H2 has improved, we have raised its profit forecast: we expect the company’s return to net profit growth at 15% / 12% / 12% in 2019-2021, and the corresponding EPS is 1.
50/1.68 yuan (the original EPS was 1 after the capital increase).
43 yuan), the current city value corresponds to 19 years pe estimated about 20x.
We expect that ilaprazole powder injections will enter the medical insurance to drive subsequent volume growth in 19 years to drive performance growth; we are optimistic about the transformation and growth brought about by the new products launched by the monoclonal antibody + microsphere platform in the future, and maintain the “strong recommendation-A” rating.
Risk warning: product sales are not up to expectations, 杭州桑拿 research and development progress is not up to expectations, production and operation and product quality trends, risks of commercial bribery, and some products are transferred to the medical insurance catalog.