Xinquan shares (603179) company research: large space, clear shape, OEM growth can be expected under the trend of reducing costs
The industry is down, the cost of combining electrification + intelligence is increasing, and the proportion of traditional parts and components is declining.
The domestic wholesale vehicle sales volume will increase to 8 in 2019.
2%, industry competition is intensifying, and the proportion of traditional parts and components is declining.
1) The historical situation of the resumption. Joint venture brands have the highest market share in the down period of the industry. The guidance prices are all lower. During the period, the joint venture-independent price spread ranges from the highest 80,000 to 100,000 yuan, and the minimum is 40,000 无锡桑拿网 to 20,000 yuan.Cost reduction; 2) Under the trend of autonomous driving and electrification, the value of traditional configurations such as interior trim and powertrain will be squeezed. According to Deloitte’s calculations, the value of bicycles with traditional interior trim will account for 10% by 2025.
9% fluorinated to 10.
9 PCT); 3) In terms of financial performance, the global EBIT rate of global interior suppliers in 2018 was only 5.
6%, the lowest profitability of the various sectors.
The industry will enter the cost-oriented era in the future, and the trend of domestic domestic suppliers to replace them is inevitable.
The interior industry has ample space and a clear structure. Under the tide of localization, it is still an excellent track for breeding leaders.
1) Market capacity: In 2018, global car sales were 95.6 million units, of which global passenger cars and light commercial vehicles achieved sales of 86.01 million. Based on the value of bicycles of 1 million, the total market for interior parts of commercial vehicles, interiorsThe global market is close to one trillion.
2) Industry structure: At present, in the interior market of domestic joint venture car companies, except for Yanfeng interior, the rest of the German and American joint venture markets are basically divided by multinational leaders such as Virginia and Antonglin, and the industry structure is clear.
3) From the perspective of financial data, the production and depreciation and amortization of the interior decoration industry bring the proportion of income below 3%. The scale advantage does not bring obvious competitive advantages. Domestic players have cost advantages and growth opportunities.
Import substitution is a mega trend, and the company has obvious cost advantages and broad growth space.
1) Overseas leaders currently regard the traditional interior decoration business as a source of cash flow, and the strategic focus has shifted to high barriers such as smart seat bays and ADAS, and high profit. The shortened research and development cycle has given the company a relatively low-end”The opportunity for the development of the traditional interior market.
2) In recent years, the fixed-point joint venture has been continuously decentralized, and local suppliers have become increasingly fixed-point.
For suppliers, it is more difficult to go from top to bottom. Once they switch to independent customers through joint venture customers, it means continuous remittance cycles, more alternating annual price reduction negotiations and higher response speed requirements.
The company started from commercial vehicles. Passenger car customers are mainly independent customers such as Geely. The company has a natural advantage in terms of annual bearing capacity and response speed.
The company has passed IATF16949 certification in 2017. In the future, the acceptance of local suppliers by OEMs will be gradually liberalized, and the biggest barriers to expanding joint venture customers are gradually being eliminated.
3) For overseas giants such as Yanfeng, Virginia, Antonglin, the company has obvious advantages in terms of profit margin, raw material ratio, labor cost, etc., which means that in the competition stage, the company has a space for price reduction and strong potential for future penetration.
The project has sufficient reserves, and it is expected that the volume and price of products will rise in the future.
During 2017-2019H1, the value of the company’s products has steadily increased. The average sales price has increased from 579 yuan / piece to 763 yuan / piece. The sales structure has been continuously optimized.
At the same time, as of 2018, the company has a total of 47 R & D projects, batches, engineering, and product allocations at all stages. The project in hand has a reasonable echelon, and it is expected to continue to contribute performance in the future.
At present, the company’s new / old projects have begun to gradually change. Depreciation and amortization have increased rapidly since 2018 (+ 80% per year). After new projects are gradually ramped up in the future, the company’s performance will usher in a new growth track.
Investment suggestion: The profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 2 in 19-21.
6.6 billion, corresponding to PE of 23.
Optimistic about the company’s core advantages in R & D and cost control, it is expected to gradually cut into the supply chain of new OEM customers, grow into an industry giant, and maintain a “Buy” rating.
Risk reminder: the risk that the upgrade and modification of the supporting models can be successfully cut in and the model sales are not up to expectations; the risk of raw material prices; the risks brought by the overall sales of automobiles