Xinquan shares (603179) company research: large space, clear shape, OEM growth can be expected under the trend of reducing costs

Xinquan shares (603179) company research: large space, clear shape, OEM growth can be expected under the trend of reducing costs

The industry is down, the cost of combining electrification + intelligence is increasing, and the proportion of traditional parts and components is declining.

The domestic wholesale vehicle sales volume will increase to 8 in 2019.

2%, industry competition is intensifying, and the proportion of traditional parts and components is declining.

1) The historical situation of the resumption. Joint venture brands have the highest market share in the down period of the industry. The guidance prices are all lower. During the period, the joint venture-independent price spread ranges from the highest 80,000 to 100,000 yuan, and the minimum is 40,000 无锡桑拿网 to 20,000 yuan.Cost reduction; 2) Under the trend of autonomous driving and electrification, the value of traditional configurations such as interior trim and powertrain will be squeezed. According to Deloitte’s calculations, the value of bicycles with traditional interior trim will account for 10% by 2025.

9% fluorinated to 10.

0% (-0.

9 PCT); 3) In terms of financial performance, the global EBIT rate of global interior suppliers in 2018 was only 5.

6%, the lowest profitability of the various sectors.

The industry will enter the cost-oriented era in the future, and the trend of domestic domestic suppliers to replace them is inevitable.

  The interior industry has ample space and a clear structure. Under the tide of localization, it is still an excellent track for breeding leaders.

1) Market capacity: In 2018, global car sales were 95.6 million units, of which global passenger cars and light commercial vehicles achieved sales of 86.01 million. Based on the value of bicycles of 1 million, the total market for interior parts of commercial vehicles, interiorsThe global market is close to one trillion.

2) Industry structure: At present, in the interior market of domestic joint venture car companies, except for Yanfeng interior, the rest of the German and American joint venture markets are basically divided by multinational leaders such as Virginia and Antonglin, and the industry structure is clear.

3) From the perspective of financial data, the production and depreciation and amortization of the interior decoration industry bring the proportion of income below 3%. The scale advantage does not bring obvious competitive advantages. Domestic players have cost advantages and growth opportunities.

  Import substitution is a mega trend, and the company has obvious cost advantages and broad growth space.

1) Overseas leaders currently regard the traditional interior decoration business as a source of cash flow, and the strategic focus has shifted to high barriers such as smart seat bays and ADAS, and high profit. The shortened research and development cycle has given the company a relatively low-end”The opportunity for the development of the traditional interior market.

2) In recent years, the fixed-point joint venture has been continuously decentralized, and local suppliers have become increasingly fixed-point.

For suppliers, it is more difficult to go from top to bottom. Once they switch to independent customers through joint venture customers, it means continuous remittance cycles, more alternating annual price reduction negotiations and higher response speed requirements.

The company started from commercial vehicles. Passenger car customers are mainly independent customers such as Geely. The company has a natural advantage in terms of annual bearing capacity and response speed.

The company has passed IATF16949 certification in 2017. In the future, the acceptance of local suppliers by OEMs will be gradually liberalized, and the biggest barriers to expanding joint venture customers are gradually being eliminated.

3) For overseas giants such as Yanfeng, Virginia, Antonglin, the company has obvious advantages in terms of profit margin, raw material ratio, labor cost, etc., which means that in the competition stage, the company has a space for price reduction and strong potential for future penetration.

  The project has sufficient reserves, and it is expected that the volume and price of products will rise in the future.

During 2017-2019H1, the value of the company’s products has steadily increased. The average sales price has increased from 579 yuan / piece to 763 yuan / piece. The sales structure has been continuously optimized.

At the same time, as of 2018, the company has a total of 47 R & D projects, batches, engineering, and product allocations at all stages. The project in hand has a reasonable echelon, and it is expected to continue to contribute performance in the future.

  At present, the company’s new / old projects have begun to gradually change. Depreciation and amortization have increased rapidly since 2018 (+ 80% per year). After new projects are gradually ramped up in the future, the company’s performance will usher in a new growth track.

  Investment suggestion: The profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 2 in 19-21.

07, 2.

98, 3.

6.6 billion, corresponding to PE of 23.

3, 16.

2, 13.

2 times.

Optimistic about the company’s core advantages in R & D and cost control, it is expected to gradually cut into the supply chain of new OEM customers, grow into an industry giant, and maintain a “Buy” rating.

  Risk reminder: the risk that the upgrade and modification of the supporting models can be successfully cut in and the model sales are not up to expectations; the risk of raw material prices; the risks brought by the overall sales of automobiles

Yunda Co., Ltd. (002120) Interim Report Comments: Cost Management Control Helps High Growth

Yunda Co., Ltd. (002120) Interim Report Comments: Cost Management Control Helps High Growth
Investment highlights: Event: Yunda Express releases 2019 semi-annual report.2019H1 achieved revenue of 155.540,000 yuan, an increase of 163 in ten years.5%; net profit attributable to mother 12.96 ppm, an increase of 29 in ten years.6%; deduct non-net profit 11.27 ppm, an increase of 27 in ten years.46%. Cost control helped boost high performance and was in line with market expectations.In terms of quarters, the growth rate of net profit attributable to mothers in Q1 2019 and Q2 2019 was 40.35%, 22.38%.Overall, Yunda’s performance growth mainly comes from two aspects: one is the completion of business volume in the first half of the year43.3.4 billion orders, an increase of 43 in ten years.The growth rate is 34%, which is 19 percentage points higher than the average growth rate of the industry. The second is to gradually increase the potential of sorting and transportation through the “cost-leading” competition strategy based on technological innovation and refined management.For example, to further improve the matching degree of trucks, cargoes, and loading rates, and continue to reduce the cost of single ticket transportation; to intelligently and efficiently upgrade some automated sorting equipment as needed to continuously reduce the cost of single ticket sorting;Hierarchy, “further reducing the starting point for transfer. The company has initially moved from a cost advantage to a capital advantage.From the perspective of Tongda express company, cost control is its core competitiveness, and “scale effect-cost barrier” is the growth path of existing leaders.Due to the differences in the cost calibers of several companies, it is not possible to directly compare them, but from the perspective of the single ticket gross profit, Yunda shares have always been higher than their peers, which can also show their cost advantage.  As of 2019Q2, Yunda’s single ticket gross margin is 0.51 yuan, higher than the peer Yuantong express 0.38 yuan.The company with relatively single ticket cost has stronger ability to collect pieces at the end, and the boots get more business volume.Relatively high business scale, multiplier effect of single ticket gross profit, so the company’s gross profit scale and net profit scale advantage of single ticket cost expenditure are gradually enlarged. The industry concentration continues to increase, and the difference in the cost of a single ticket will be the core reason for the differentiation of the performance of the Tongda department.From the industry perspective, the unit growth rate in the first half of this year was 25.7%, Pinduoduo parcels contributed a major increase, the proportion has exceeded 25%.Against the background of the industry’s sustained high unit volume, price pressures remain.Taking Shentong as an example, the single-piece income in June fell by about 14%.Under the pressure of price wars, the second- and third-tier express delivery companies have lost market share continuously, and the total market share of single-volume units in Q2 has increased to 73%.For the Department of Access, the difference in the cost of a single ticket will be the core reason for the differentiation of performance.Taking 厦门夜网 the A-share three-home appliance courier company as an example, the average number of Yunda shares PE (TTM) in the past two years was 29.1x, Yuantong Express is 24.2 times, Shentong Express is 17.8 times.Obviously, the companies with the necessary costs have obtained higher valuations. Investment suggestion: Maintain “Buy” rating: In the industry, the next 1-2 years will be a critical period for the differentiation of existing leaders.In this process, a company with a relatively single ticket cost has a stronger ability to collect packages at the end, and obtains more business volume.Relatively high business scale, multiplier effect of single ticket gross profit, so the company’s gross profit scale and net profit scale advantage of single ticket cost expenditure are gradually enlarged.We maintain our profit forecast for 2019-2021, and expect the net profit attributable to mothers to be 27-20 in 2019-2021.6.1 billion, 33.2.1 billion, 38.820,000 yuan, due to changes in equity in the first half, EPS is 1.24 yuan, 1.49 yuan, 1.74 yuan (previous average 1).61 yuan, 1.94 yuan, 2.27 yuan), corresponding to PE is 30 times, 25 times, 22 times. Risk Warning: Industry Price War Exceeds Expectations, Online Shopping Growth Is Below Expectation

Zhenhua Technology (000733): Low Interest Loan Supports Independent Controllable Main Business Equity Incentive Landing Injects Performance Improvement

Zhenhua Technology (000733): Low Interest Loan Supports Independent Controllable Main Business Equity Incentive Landing Injects Performance Improvement

The company released an announcement: 1) China Zhenhua received the annual interest rate of the loan from China Electronics, the actual controller, for a period of two years.

61% (previous loan benchmark interest rate of 3pct) 武汉夜生活网 of 8.
.

$ 2 million loan, totaling 6 of them.

35 billion USD was re-loaned to 7 subsidiaries involved in military high-tech electronics business, using high-tech business liquidity and loan replacement.

2) The company changed the equity incentive exercise plan, raised the assessment benchmark from 2017 performance year to 2018, and extended the assessment period from 2019-2021 to 2020-2022.

Key points of investment: Low interest rate loans supplement high-tech electronic component liquidity funds and replace high-cost expenditures. Focusing on the core main business of continuous high R & D expansion and scalable expansion accelerates the automatic controllable process of core components.

Zhenhua Technology will receive 8.

6 of 20 ppm low interest rate loans.

35 billion was re-loaned to the 7 subsidiaries of the 杭州桑拿 military high-tech electronics business to be used for liquidity supplements and loan replacement of high-tech businesses.

Based on the interest expenses and debt conditions disclosed in the 2018 annual report, its average debt interest rate is 7.

10%.

The low interest rate is 8.

A 2 billion loan is expected to reduce financial costs by approximately 0.

20 ppm, supporting savings in operating costs and effectively reducing the company’s financial costs.

The high-tech electronics industry in which the company is located has the characteristics of capital-intensive and technology-intensive. The investment of this capital may meet the company’s operating activities’ demand for capital.

As an independent and controllable pioneer of military electronic components, the company’s high R & D expansion and industrialization practice may help the company’s internal low-end products to transform and upgrade to high-end products, and capture the value of high-end core components in the military-civilian dual-use market.

The extension of the exercise period and the upward evaluation benchmarks demonstrate the company’s confidence in future performance, and the performance evaluation further stimulates the internal vitality to inject sufficient benefits for upward performance.

The exercise performance evaluation benchmark of the equity incentive plan will be adjusted based on the company’s 2018 performance level: the net profit deducted from non-attribution will be deducted from 1.

530,000 yuan changed to 1.

80 ppm will deduct unexpected average return on equity from 3.

76% changed to 4.

20%.

The performance evaluation period was changed from the original 2019-2021 to 2020-2022.

The exercise benchmark and extended exercise period reflect the company’s confidence in the continued performance of the future, further realize the integration of the company’s development and indirect direct incentives, optimize the company’s comprehensive governance structure and incentive and restraint mechanisms under the state-owned enterprise background, and participate in the market in the companyIn the process of economic competition, the company’s endogenous driving force is constantly stimulated.

At the same time, good internal control is more conducive to promoting the company’s progress in the implementation of its strategic plan of “focusing on the core and increasing quality”, and the two-wheel drive will inject sufficient responses to the company’s future performance.

Focusing on the core investment logic of the company’s mid- and long-term value for the first time: 1) Relying on the first-mover advantage of “three-line construction” and the background of the military industry central enterprise channel, the company supplemented the raised projects to achieve product upgrades and capacity expansion, and reorganized the organizational relationships of subsidiaries to stimulate business vitality and synergyEffect, it is expected to further consolidate the core competitiveness of military components; 2) shareholders have high-quality independent controllable component assets, the company as the only and only platform, the future does not rule out the possibility of playing a key role in the group’s asset securitization process, plus the companyRevising the stock budget incentive plan to further improve the assessment standards, making the larger market value compatible with the high incentives of related interests, and the company’s long-term development is expected.

Downgrade profit forecast and maintain Buy rating: Considering that the company’s operating activities rely heavily on subsidiaries to develop, in order to focus on the main business and gradually reduce inefficient assets, during this period, the possibility of wide changes in performance is not ruled out, so we downgrade the company 19 /20-year return to mother’s net profit forecast to 2.

8