Shao Neng (000601): Clean Energy Business Makes Full Forces; First Three Quarters Results Exceed Expectations

Shao Neng (000601): Clean Energy Business Makes Full Forces; First Three Quarters Results Exceed Expectations
Investment Highlights Event: The company released the first three quarter results forecast: It is expected that the first three quarters of 2019 will achieve net profit attributable to mothers.60-4.90 ‰, an increase of 71 in ten years.19% -82.35%; net profit attributable to mothers was achieved in the third quarter.06-1.3.6 billion, an increase of 64 in ten years.03% -110.36%. The hydropower + biomass power generation business is working together, and the first 四川耍耍网 three quarters of performance have maintained a high growth rate: 1) The water conditions of the company’s subordinate hydropower stations are relatively good, and the company has done a fine job of scientific management of water regime scientific dispatching to improve water energy insteadOptimization, therefore, the increase in the amount of hydropower generation, utilization hours is higher than the expansion, and the operating efficiency is greatly improved.2) In the first half of 2019, the company’s Xinfeng Xuneng Biomass Energy Expansion Project was put into production, and the company’s biomass power generation installed capacity increased by 60,000 kilowatts.Finally, the company’s installed capacity of biomass power generation is 180,000 kilowatts.In the first three quarters, the company’s biomass power generation enterprise has done a good job in production and management. The generating unit utilization hours are based on a higher industry average, and the offset has increased. The main “defense” of clean energy: Hydropower provides safety margins, and biomass power generation projects will be put into operation this year and next: 1) Hydropower business: The company operates 680,000 kilowatts of installed hydropower in hand, distributed in Guangdong and Hunan provinces, of which Guangdong Small HydropowerThe lowest electricity price is 0.4382 yuan / degree, Hunan electricity price is 0.Around 30 yuan / degree, both are significantly higher than the industry average; in the first half of 2019, due to the better impact of water conditions, the company’s hydropower utilization hours reached 2940 hours, far exceeding the national average of 1674 hours of hydropower utilization.2) Biomass power generation business: the company has put into operation a total of 180,000 kilowatts of installed biomass power generation capacity, and a total of 180,000 kilowatts of projects under construction + planned construction (concentrated in 2019 and 2020 for production).Fuel collection mode + combined heat and power + strong demand for power and other core competitive advantages, the utilization hours in 2018 reached 6,575 hours, which is 29% higher than the industry average.3) We make conservative estimates of the company’s biomass power generation projects in hand. In 2020, only two projects that are newly commissioned in 2019 are expected to provide incremental net profits.64-0.Above 800,000 yuan, the net profit scale of biomass business in 2018 increased by more than 100%. Green paper tableware main “offensive”: the price of degradable ecological paper tableware business has risen, contributing significantly to the growth of today’s and tomorrow’s performance: 1) According to data from Zhiyan Consulting and Industry Information Network, the market space of green paper tableware inNearly 25 billion U.S. dollars, and the company has multiple core competitive advantages such as scale effect + automation equipment + business collaboration, and the industry leader is expected to gradually improve its stability.2) We predict that 6.8After the first-phase project of such environmentally friendly paper tableware is put into production, the company’s production capacity will reach 10.8 digits / year, it is expected that the revenue of this business will reach 15.08 ppm, a measure of an increase of 286% in 2018; assuming that the automation of the production process can increase the net margin by 3 percentage points, the company’s environmental protection paper tableware business will achieve a net profit scale of 1.240,000 yuan, ranking increased by 517 in 2018.95%. Earnings forecast and investment rating: The company’s EPS for 19-21 is expected to be 0.55, 0.68, 0.76 yuan, corresponding PE is 11, 9, and 8 times. The company also has: 1) Dividends for value stocks: The company promises to increase the cash dividend ratio from 35% to 60% in the year 2019-2021, and it is expected that the company’s dividend rate in 2019It will exceed 5%, ranking first among all companies in the hydropower industry; 2) Valuation of cyclical stocks: corresponding to 11 times PE in 2019; 3) Growth rates of growth stocks: 北京夜网 97 and 2020 respectively.2%, 23.1%, therefore, we maintain the company’s “Buy” rating. Risk reminder: Macroeconomic downturn affects power demand, and there is a risk of downward price adjustments for hydropower and biomass compensation electricity prices, etc.